dimanche 15 mars 2009

FOREX

The foreign exchange market (currency, forex, or FX) market is where currency trading takes place. It is where banks and other official institutions facilitate the buying and selling of foreign currencies. FX transactions typically involve one party purchasing a quantity of one currency in exchange for paying a quantity of another. The foreign exchange market that we see today started evolving during the 1970s when worldover countries gradually switched to floating exchange rate from their erstwhile exchange rate regime, which remained fixed as per the Bretton Woods system till 1971.
Today, the FX market is one of the largest and most liquid financial markets in the world, and includes trading between large banks, central banks, currency speculators, corporations, governments, and other institutions. The average daily volume in the global foreign exchange and related markets is continuously growing. Traditional daily turnover was reported to be over US$3.2 trillion in April 2007 by the Bank for International Settlements. Since then, the market has continued to grow. According to Euromoney's annual FX Poll, volumes grew a further 41% between 2007 and 2008.
The purpose of FX market is to facilitate trade and investment. The need for a foreign exchange market arises because of the presence of multifarious international currencies such as US Dollar, Pound Sterling, etc., and the need for trading in such currencies.
The foreign exchange market is unique because of
· its trading volumes,
· the extreme liquidity of the market,
· its geographical dispersion,
· its long trading hours: 24 hours a day except on weekends (from 22:00 UTC on Sunday until 22:00 UTC Friday),
· the variety of factors that affect exchange rates.
· the low margins of profit compared with other markets of fixed income (but profits can be high due to very large trading volumes)
· the use of leverage .




Main foreign exchange market turnover, 1988 - 2007, measured in billions of USD.
As such, it has been referred to as the market closest to the ideal perfect competition, notwithstanding market manipulation by central banks. According to the Bank for International Settlements, average daily turnover in global foreign exchange markets is estimated at $3.98 trillion. Trading in the world's main financial markets accounted for $3.21 trillion of this. This approximately $3.21 trillion in main foreign exchange market turnover was broken down as follows:
· $1.005 trillion in spot transactions
· $362 billion in outright forwards
· $1.714 trillion in foreign exchange swaps
· $129 billion estimated gaps in reporting
Of the $3.98 trillion daily global turnover, trading in London accounted for around $1.36 trillion, or 34.1% of the total, making London by far the global center for foreign exchange. In second and third places respectively, trading in New York accounted for 16.6%, and Tokyo accounted for 6.0%. In addition to "traditional" turnover, $2.1 trillion was traded in derivatives. Exchange-traded FX futures contracts were introduced in 1972 at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and are actively traded relative to most other futures contracts. Several other developed countries also permit the trading of FX derivative products (like currency futures and options on currency futures) on their exchanges. All these developed countries already have fully convertible capital accounts. Most emerging countries do not permit FX derivative products on their exchanges in view of prevalent controls on the capital accounts. However, a few select emerging countries (e.g., Korea, South Africa, India) have already successfully experimented with the currency futures exchanges, despite having some controls on the capital account. FX futures volume has grown rapidly in recent years, and accounts for about 7% of the total foreign exchange market volume, according to The Wall Street Journal Europe
Foreign exchange trading increased by 38% between April 2005 and April 2006 and has more than doubled since 2001. This is largely due to the growing importance of foreign exchange as an asset class and an increase in fund management assets, particularly of hedge funds and pension funds. The diverse selection of execution venues such as retail trading platforms platforms offered by companies such as Paragon EX, First Prudential Markets and Saxo Bank have made it easier for retail traders to trade in the foreign exchange market. In 2006, retail traders constituted over 2% of the whole FX market volumes with an average daily trade volume of over US$50-60 billion (see retail trading platforms). Because foreign exchange is an OTC market where brokers/dealers negotiate directly with one another, there is no central exchange or clearing house. The biggest geographic trading centre is the UK, primarily London, which according to IFSL estimates has increased its share of global turnover in traditional transactions from 31.3% in April 2004 to 34.1% in April 2007. The ten most active traders account for almost 80% of trading volume, according to the 2008 Euromoney FX survey. These large international banks continually provide the market with both bid (buy) and ask (sell) prices. The bid/ask spread is the difference between the price at which a bank or market maker will sell ("ask", or "offer") and the price at which a market-maker will buy ("bid") from a wholesale customer. This spread is minimal for actively traded pairs of currencies, usually 0–3 pips. For example, the bid/ask quote of EUR/USD might be 1.2200/1.2203 on a retail broker. Minimum trading size for most deals is usually 100,000 units of base currency, which is a standard "lot".



Top 10 currency traders % of overall volume, May 2008


These spreads might not apply to retail customers at banks, which will routinely mark up the difference to say 1.2100/1.2300 for transfers, or say 1.2000/1.2400 for banknotes or travelers' checks. Spot prices at market makers vary, but on EUR/USD are usually no more than 3 pips wide (i.e., 0.0003). Competition is greatly increased with larger transactions, and pip spreads shrink on the major pairs to as little as 1 to 2 pips.
Controversy about currency speculators and their effect on currency devaluations and national economies recurs regularly. Nevertheless, economists including Milton Friedman have argued that speculators ultimately are a stabilizing influence on the market and perform the important function of providing a market for hedgers and transferring risk from those people who don't wish to bear it, to those who do. Other economists such as Joseph Stiglitz consider this argument to be based more on politics and a free market philosophy than on economics.
Large hedge funds and other well capitalized "position traders" are the main professional speculators.
Currency speculation is considered a highly suspect activity in many countries. While investment in traditional financial instruments like bonds or stocks often is considered to contribute positively to economic growth by providing capital, currency speculation does not; according to this view, it is simply gambling that often interferes with economic policy. For example, in 1992, currency speculation forced the Central Bank of Sweden to raise interest rates for a few days to 500% per annum, and later to devalue the krona. Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad is one well known proponent of this view. He blamed the devaluation of the Malaysian ringgit in 1997 on George Soros and other speculators.
Gregory J. Millman reports on an opposing view, comparing speculators to "vigilantes" who simply help "enforce" international agreements and anticipate the effects of basic economic "laws" in order to profit.
In this view, countries may develop unsustainable financial bubbles or otherwise mishandle their national economies, and foreign exchange speculators allegedly made the inevitable collapse happen sooner. A relatively quick collapse might even be preferable to continued economic mishandling. Mahathir Mohamad and other critics of speculation are viewed as trying to deflect the blame from themselves for having caused the unsustainable economic conditions. Given that Malaysia recovered quickly after imposing currency controls directly against IMF advice, this view is open to doubt.


mercredi 11 mars 2009

FOREX


Le Forex ou marché d’échange de Devises est, de loin, le plus grand marché du monde en affaires et inclut les transactions monétaires réalisées aussi bien par les grandes instances bancaires, les banques centrales, les spéculateurs, les multinationales, comme par les marchés financiers et institutions.

Actuellement, le volume d’affaires du Marché Forex atteint 1,9 trillions de dollars de moyenne quotidienne, et il s’agit d’un marché en hausse puisque le Financial Times pronostique une croissance de 200% dans les 3 prochaines années, dû à l’arrivée des gestionnaires de fonds et les fonds de pension.

L'existence d'un vaste marché des changes est un fait que ne perçoivent pas très bien les investisseurs particuliers. Cependant si l'on utilise des termes simples la compréhension de ce type de marché est aisée et il peut ouvrir des perspectives fantastiques en tant que véhicule d'investissement pour les investisseurs.

Que vous le vouliez ou non et d'ailleurs peut être sans le savoir, vous jouez un rôle dans le marché du Forex. Le simple fait d'avoir de l'argent dans votre poche fait de vous un détenteur de devises. Le fait que votre compte bancaire et vos actifs soient valorisés en Euros fait de vous un investisseur dans cette monnaie. La fluctuation des cours des différentes devises sur le marché fait évoluer la valeur de votre patrimoine. En d'autres termes, même si vous possédez certains de vos comptes libellés dans une devise étrangère, vous devez considérer que la valeur de votre fortune est liée à l'appréciation de la devise du pays dans lequel vous avez investi.

La Naissance du Forex

En détenant des Euros vous avez fait le choix de ne pas être investi sur une autre monnaie.
Vos achats d'actions, d'obligations et de toutes sortes de produits financiers ainsi que vos soldes bancaires représentent un engagement de votre part sur l'avenir de l'Euro. Comme la valeur de celui-ci varie de façon permanente ceci peut faire varier de façon très importante la valeur globale de votre fortune.
Quand on admet ceci, on comprend que certains investisseurs avisés tirent profit de ces variations de cours des monnaies pour augmenter la valeur de leur capital. Depuis la création du marché des changes celui-ci a connu des modifications nombreuses et profondes. Pendant des années à la suite des accords de '' Bretton Wood's '' le monde occidental a décidé de construire un système dans lequel le cours des monnaies était lié étroitement au montant des réserves en or des banques centrales de chaque pays. Au cours de l'été 1971 le Président Nixon décida d'abandonner le système dit du '' Gold Standard '' et créa un taux de change flottant pour le dollar.
Aujourd'hui l'offre et la demande de chacune des devises déterminent son cours. La levée des obstacles que représentait le régime communisme dans les pays de l'Est et le développement des économies des pays émergents a créé de nouvelles opportunités pour les investisseurs.

Le Forex un marché Mondial

Le récent développement du commerce international a rendu les économies plus interdépendantes. Véhiculés par tous les médias, les informations sur les données économiques de tous les pays arrivent de façon continue. Cela concerne les taux d'inflation, les taux de chômage, l'évolution des taux de croissance mais cela peut concerner des événements inattendus comme des cataclysmes naturels des guerres ou des attentats qui influencent immédiatement la valeur des monnaies qui peuvent être concernées par ces faits. Le cours de l'Euro fluctue de façon permanente contre les autres monnaies des autres pays. Le développement d'Internet à l'échelon mondial à permis au marché des changes de se structurer et de devenir le marché le plus important au monde. Le marché du Forex est par sa taille le garant d'une liquidité parfaite et de loin supérieur à tous les marchés connus dans le monde.




Le Forex : le plus grand marché du Monde

Le marché des changes est ouvert traditionnellement aux banques et aux très grandes institutions financières. Ces grands groupes ont réalisés de fructueuses opérations compte tenu de leurs positions et de leurs connaissances des règles de fonctionnement du marché. Aujourd'hui le marché s'est ouvert à d'autres intervenants, des brokers, des traders sur devises, des gestionnaires de portefeuilles et même des investisseurs particuliers. Tout ceci est devenu possible par l'interconnexion en temps réel de tous les intervenants et grâce à Internet.